Vincent's victory against Caruana is a must. In the event of a draw, all chances are gone. But other results must also be right, as Vincent unfortunately has a very bad final rating; he still has to catch up 4 places. Hikaru Nakamura (7.5) must at least play a draw against Arjun Erigaisi (7) on board 1. Nakamura would then be ahead of Vincent, but Erigaisi would be out of the race.
Anish Giri (6.5) has to win with white on board 3 against Esipenko (7.5). Giri is more or less out of the race for a place in the Candidates Tournament and Vincent would overtake Esipenko. On board 2, Vidit (7.5), with an even worse final rating than Vincent, plays against Predke (7). The best result would be a draw in this game.
A lot of things have to go really well for Vincent to make it in the end, but to even have this prospect before the last round is a great result!